January 15, 2015, 09:30 GMT (18:30 Tokyo). The Swiss National Bank announced removal of the 1.20 EUR/CHF floor that had defined the Swiss franc's trajectory since September 6, 2011. EUR/CHF collapsed from 1.20 to as low as 0.85 within minutes — a 30% currency move in a major pair, in normal market hours, with no warning. The European session bore the visible impact, but Asian-session books — Tokyo, Singapore, Hong Kong — that had carried short-CHF positions into the Tokyo close inherited overnight gaps that flagged at Tokyo open the following session. We pulled the Asian-session perspective on the SNB unpeg, the cascade through Tokyo books, and what 11 years post-unpeg reveal about cross-session risk transfer.
Pre-January 15 conditions
The setup leading into the unpeg:
Floor history. SNB introduced the 1.20 EUR/CHF floor on September 6, 2011, after CHF safe-haven demand pushed the pair toward parity during European sovereign-debt crisis stress.
Three-and-a-half year defense. SNB defended the floor for 41 months through balance-sheet expansion approaching CHF 500 billion in foreign reserves.
ECB QE expectations. Markets pricing imminent ECB sovereign QE announcement (delivered January 22, one week post-unpeg) — projected to weaken EUR sharply, intensifying SNB defense costs.
Verbal commitment pattern. SNB repeatedly affirmed floor commitment through December 2014 and into January 2015. Vice-President Danthine called the floor "absolute" on January 12 — three days before removal.
Asian-session positioning. Many Asian-session retail and institutional books carried short-CHF positions assuming SNB defense permanence — including via JPY/CHF and EUR/CHF crosses common in Tokyo books.
The pre-event consensus held the floor as institutionally credible. The removal was unforecast.
January 15 European-hours sequence
The unpeg unfolded in European session:
09:30 GMT. SNB announces unilateral removal of EUR/CHF 1.20 floor.
09:30-09:35 GMT. EUR/CHF collapses through 1.10, 1.00, 0.90, reaching approximately 0.85 in some venues during initial liquidity vacuum.
09:35-10:00 GMT. Partial recovery toward 1.00-1.05 area as liquidity providers re-engaged.
Broker failures. Multiple retail FX brokers experienced solvency events — Alpari UK entered administration, FXCM required emergency funding, several smaller venues failed entirely.
Bank desk losses. Major bank trading desks reported substantial CHF-related losses — Deutsche Bank, Citi, Barclays disclosed losses across subsequent earnings.
By European close, EUR/CHF stabilized in 1.02-1.05 range — down approximately 13-15% from the 1.20 floor.
Asian-session cascade — January 16 Tokyo open
The Tokyo session inheriting the unpeg consequences:
Tokyo open January 16. Asian-session books opening to mark-to-market reflecting prior session CHF moves.
JPY/CHF positioning. Tokyo-prevalent JPY/CHF carry positions repriced sharply — pair moved approximately 18% in CHF favor.
Margin calls. Asian-session retail platforms processed substantial margin calls into Tokyo morning hours.
Liquidity gap pricing. Asian-session liquidity providers pricing wider spreads on CHF crosses through January 16-19 trading.
Counterparty risk repricing. Asian-session institutional books reassessing counterparty risk to CHF-exposed European brokers.
Retail platform failures. Several Asian-region retail platforms experienced solvency stress; some required parent-bank capital injection.
The Asian-session impact was substantial despite the actual unpeg occurring outside Tokyo trading hours — overnight risk transfer remains the principal Tokyo-book exposure to non-Asian session events.
2015-2018 CHF trajectory
Post-unpeg CHF evolution:
Initial range establishment. EUR/CHF traded 1.04-1.10 range across 2015 — down approximately 15% from the 1.20 floor sustained level.
Sustained CHF strength. CHF maintained safe-haven characteristics across 2015-2018 with periodic SNB intervention to manage extreme appreciation episodes.
SNB negative-rate policy. SNB maintained -0.75% policy rate (introduced December 18, 2014, three weeks pre-unpeg) — globally lowest policy rate sustained for years.
Reserve accumulation continued. SNB FX reserves continued growing through 2015-2018 reflecting continued CHF-management operations.
EUR/CHF range. Pair traded 1.03-1.20 range across 2015-2018 with sustained SNB management influence.
The post-unpeg period demonstrated that floor removal did not eliminate SNB intervention — it shifted from explicit commitment to discretionary management.
2018-2026 CHF framework
Recent CHF evolution:
EUR/CHF parity breach 2022. Pair broke below 1.00 during Russia-Ukraine conflict period — first sustained sub-parity trading since 2015.
SNB rate hikes 2022-2023. SNB exited NIRP in September 2022, raising rates aggressively through 2023.
2024-2025 stabilization. EUR/CHF traded approximately 0.92-0.98 range across 2024-2025.
Continued SNB framework. Continued SNB policy framework supports CHF management through rates plus intervention.
What 11 years reveal
Post-unpeg lessons:
Verbal commitments are conditional. "Absolute" three days before removal demonstrated central bank verbal commitments hold only until cost-benefit shifts.
Asian-session books carry overnight risk on European events. Tokyo books holding CHF-cross positions inherited European-session shock in next-day mark-to-market.
Liquidity vacuums extend beyond initial print. The 0.85 EUR/CHF print represented liquidity vacuum extreme; sustained execution levels stabilized 15-20% higher within hours.
Broker capitalization matters. Retail-broker solvency failures concentrated among under-capitalized venues; well-capitalized venues survived without client losses.
Carry-trade positioning is unpeg-vulnerable. Sustained-floor trades accumulate complacency premium; floor removal liquidates accumulated position.
Asian session implications 2026
For Asian-session forex desks:
Overnight risk on European-session events. Tokyo-open mark-to-market reflects prior European session moves — overnight risk management is operational reality for Asian books.
CHF-cross liquidity pricing. CHF-cross spreads in Asian session reflect overnight European-session liquidity availability.
Counterparty risk. Asian-session counterparty selection reflects broker capitalization and CHF-exposure history.
The January 15 2015 SNB unpeg remains the canonical reference for major-pair currency shock outside crisis context. Eleven years post-event, the lessons compound: verbal central-bank commitments are conditional, liquidity vacuums extend further than first print, and Asian-session books inherit European-session events through overnight risk transfer. For ongoing CHF analysis and broader policy-floor risk assessment, January 2015 reference remains operationally relevant.